Minister reveals modelling results giving worst-case virus scenario

Wed, 01/04/2020 - 11:18 -- Editor

The crucial importance of social distancing in NI has been graphically brought home by local modelling data on Covid-19.

Health Minister Robin Swann has set out key findings of an expert NI modelling study, which will inform intensive hospital planning for the forthcoming surge in Covid-19 cases.

“In summary, the research indicates that our health service would have a realistic prospect of coping in this initial period if a sufficient proportion of the population adhere to the social distancing and self-isolation measures,” Mr Swann said.

“However, it is important that this is considered in context, and I would emphasise that it provides no grounds whatsoever for dropping our guard. On the contrary, the projections underline that the continuation of rigorous social distancing will save many lives and protect our health service from collapse.

“Even then, a reasonable worst case scenario would involve significant loss of life In Northern Ireland.

“In addition, the absence of a vaccine means we will have to plan for a potential second wave of Covid-19 cases later in the year.”

The modelling outcome sets out a reasonable worst case scenario, based on a number of assumptions including social distancing measures producing a 66% reduction in contacts outside the home and workplace. In addition, 70% of symptomatic cases would adhere to case isolation.

The modelling team’s best judgement is that this would lead to a peak number of 180 Covid-19 patients requiring ventilation and critical care beds during the first wave of the epidemic. The peak number of Covid-19 hospital admissions would be 500 per week.

Under this reasonable worst case scenario, the projected number of cumulative Covid-19 deaths in Northern Ireland over 20 weeks of the epidemic would be 3,000.

The modelling indicates that the peak of the first wave of the epidemic is expected between 6-20 April 2020.

The modelling team authors emphasise that the work is not a prediction or forecast, rather a model for planning purposes; and also state: “It is assumed that current restrictions remain in place for the foreseeable future.  When the current restrictions are relaxed, there will be a second wave.  Future modelling will focus on the size and shape of this depending on how/when restrictions are relaxed or re-introduced. This will remain the case until there is substantial population immunity either as a result of recovery from infection or successful vaccination.”